In 2015, EMEA property investment is expected to increase by 20%.
According to Cushman & Wakefield, property investment activity in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) would expand significantly in 2015. buy property in qatar for expats
EMEA investment volumes are expected to
rise 20% next year to €247 billion ($300 billion USD), up from an anticipated
€206 billion ($250 billion USD) this year. Demand is currently high, but
markets will become much more liquid in 2015 as fund allocations continue to
rise, occupational markets heat up in many areas, and financing markets become
more competitive. Furthermore, short-term worries such as stock market
volatility, deflation fears, and slow economic growth might all indicate to
increased demand for property as a result of its relative yield and risk
profile. Retail and logistics will gain market share, but excellent property in
all sectors will be in demand, and a significant rise in development appetite
is envisaged, first focused on the region's key office markets.
Quantitative easing (QE) will offer a boost
to liquidity, and the aftermath of the ECB bank stress tests - which will
remove a restraint on the market this year while still allowing for greater
sales if banks take action - might create circumstances for much increased
activity.
Profit taking and some new development
should assist to expand the breadth of investment alternatives accessible in
the market, in addition to loan and asset sales and deleveraging. Interest in a
larger range of markets and sectors should continue to grow, and although some
investors are forced to do so by necessity in order to locate opportunities,
others are consciously looking to take on greater risk in order to achieve
greater returns. As a result, while demand at the core end of the market will
remain strong, a greater emphasis on core-plus and value-added possibilities is
likely.
This year's upturn was spearheaded by
southern markets, particularly Spain, which saw volumes rise by an estimated 55
percent. This trend is expected to continue in 2015, with 45-50 percent
increase predicted. Other places that were overlooked in 2014 might see
increased demand, with the Nordics expected to rise 25% following a 7% gain
this year, given to their strong attractiveness as low-risk economies with high
relative growth prospects. Markets in Central and Eastern Europe are likely to
recover as well, increasing 30-35 percent after falling 15-20 percent this
year. Events in Ukraine, as well as commodity prices and general emerging
market concerns, may hold back Russia and certain non-EU eastern markets.
Central Europe, on the other hand, is a distinct and more hopeful short-term
potential, and other eastern EU markets may see increased interest provided the
proper stock is available. Meanwhile, we presently estimate growth of 15% in
Western markets, somewhat lower than the 20% increase observed this year,
reflecting the fact that these economies have already had a full recovery.
With significant competition to buy, prices
are expected to rise further, with prime yields expected to decline 25-50 basis
points this year, to an average of 5.6 percent across all sectors in big
cities.
Continued uncertainty, geopolitical
threats, and deflation will stifle GDP, but a gradual but steady recovery is
underway, and 2015 should be a stronger year than 2014. For one thing, improved
spending power due to reduced inflation and tighter labor markets should
stimulate domestic demand in much of Europe. At the same time, the euro's
depreciation and cheaper input costs should aid manufacturing. The credit cycle
looks to have reached a nadir, with rising bank lending and money supply
indicating a tightening of circumstances.
Due to falling energy costs, inflation will
continue to decline, keeping the attention on deflation despite the short-term
advantages it provides to individuals and companies. This should postpone the
normalization of monetary policy and, in fact, induce more easing in the
Eurozone. With investment markets well ahead of occupier cycles, there is an
obvious possibility of a bubble forming, but with liquidity so abundant, this
will only become obvious in 2015.
In many markets, occupational trends are
driven by supply, but requirements are changing as a result of new technology
and new living, working, and shopping habits, and this will be a major driver
of demand across all European markets.
While low and uncertain economic growth
will keep firms focused on cost-cutting, demand for efficient space will begin
to drive rents up, and falling commodity prices may make this process easier if
construction costs fall. Prime rents are predicted to rise 2-3 percent in 2015,
led by Western markets, with strong growth for dominating high streets and
shopping centres, however offices may lead over the cycle due to limited new
supply. As ecommerce expands the role of logistics, better industrial
performance is expected, but there will be a danger of secondary market
underperformance in all sectors.
Europe will continue to draw more than its
fair share of global investment, though at a slower rate than in 2014, thanks
to improved supply and demand and more liquidity courtesy of QE, while domestic
and regional expenditure will rise as fund allocations are boosted. Overall,
cross-border investment is expected to increase by 30%, compared to 15% for
domestic expenditure, with global investment increasing by 30-35 percent and
regional purchases increasing by 20%.
According to Jan Willem Bastijn, Cushman
& Wakefield's head of EMEA Capital Markets, "As both the supply and
demand outlooks improve, our market forecasts are being pushed higher. The push
to demand is already visible, with volatile stock markets and growing liquidity
bolstered by quantitative easing, while the boost to supply will come from
deleveraging banks and enterprises, profit taking, and, in our judgment, a more
noticeable speed up in development " Our basic projection is for a 20%
growth to roughly €250 billion, which would make 2015 the second highest year
for volumes ever and only 8% behind the pre-crisis record. With the current
level of liquidity, it may easily be surpassed, and the market will be
establishing a new all-time high by 2016 at the earliest." " As other
areas display greater economic development, a higher level of investor risk
tolerance is maintained, and the unwinding of quantitative easing decreases
global liquidity, the worldwide emphasis on Europe over the previous 1-2 years
is projected to gradually fade. Parts of Asia, particularly the United States,
are expected to draw more EMEA investment. However, in the short term,
additional QE in the Eurozone, as well as a higher supply of chances in Europe
as banks and firms reorganize and deleverage, will keep the world's gaze on
Europe for longer than expected."
Cushman & Wakefield's Head of EMEA
Investment Strategy, David Hutchings, says, "The dangers in today's market
are difficult to assess; some are hardly evident at the moment, while others
may erupt, possibly most notably in the political realm this year. As a
consequence, for many investors, it's all about the lease, and they need to
make sure their approach is as future-proof as possible, which involves
focusing on property that fits the demands of occupiers and is adaptable to
change. Only the greatest properties will be able to weather a time of
inflation or deflation " Investors must also broaden their investing
horizons to include new markets and sectors, and 2015 should see a further push
into previously untapped areas such as multifamily residential and healthcare
""Alternative" industries are becoming mainstream. While a
bubble may build further out due to bond markets and excess liquidity, bond
rates are expected to remain low in 2015, putting further downward pressure on
property rates. Pricing will react to the new market reality, in which
liquidity and income sustainability should be more strongly rewarded in their
price than in the past, and markets with below-average income sustainability
and security will be the most vulnerable to the bubble risk."
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